Gone Fishin'

A fishing rod is a stick with a hook at one end and a fool at the other.
                                   -- Samuel Johnson
 

When you go fishin', never keep the little fish.  You won't eat them, and the big fish will." 
                                   -- Winston Groom
                                   (The Wit and Wisdom of Forrest Gump)
 

Dear Friend,

On Vacation
In case you were wondering why you didn't receive my May 21st newsletter, it's because I didn't write one. 

I gave myself permission to have a vacation without doing more work in order to have it.  Perhaps there's a topic here, but I'm not going to write about that today.

24 Years
This vacation was the 25th Spring trip (24th anniversary) of the Canoe Buddies, a small bunch of men who have gone off together to the lakes and woods of New York's Adirondacks.  As our collective name implies, mostly we hope to canoe, but we also hike, talk, eat (and drink)... and the other guys sometimes fish.

For the last ten years, we've been staying in a particular cottage on Big Moose Lake.  The cottage is on a shore of the lake that is inaccessible by road, so we canoe or take the motorized rowboat (affectionately known as "The Stinkpot") the half mile across.  At the time of year we go, it's warm enough to ensure the ice will be off the lake, but not too warm for the black flies to be intolerable.  During the first three days this year, it snowed every time we crossed the lake.

Family Time
Some years, some of us stay up at the cottage through the second weekend, and are joined by our respective partners and children.  That happened this year.
 

"De gustabus non disputandum est."
     "There's no accounting for tastes."

On Saturday afternoon, Jim went down to the dock in front of the cottage to fish.  From the cottage, I saw him standing there, flicking his lure out into the water and winding it back in toward him.  I'd seen this picture many times before. 

Now, I'm well aware that fishing is not just a way to catch a fish.  Properly approached, it can be a form of relaxation, even meditation.   Nevertheless, I confess I had the following thought:

"What possesses an otherwise intelligent man to fish off this dock when he's never caught a fish off this dock in all the years we've been coming here?"

So I sauntered down to the dock.  As I neared him, Jim turns and says, "Look!" 

Wouldn't you know... he had the gumption to catch a fish.  A big fish!

It turns out this was the second fish he had caught that day.  The first was a bit smaller and he'd thrown it back. 

Some Lessons Learned

• The past can suggest the future, but cannot predict the future.
   
• Persistence pays off.
   
• Life provides many surprises.
   
• Bayesian, rather than Classical, statistics often will provide a better estimate of possibility in the real world (* see below).
   
• A bad day of fishing is better than a good day in the office.

Would you like to play?
Send in your ideas and favorite quotes that express what you have taken away from this story.   I'll post them in the next newsletter with your name and any contact information you wish to include.

Knocking home the point

In case the point was not made, Jim caught two more fish the next day... from the dock.   Yum.

Take good care -

   Steve
 

* Imagine a coin toss in which the chance of heads or tails showing is 50% on any toss.  If by, say,  the 90th coin toss there have been only heads: 

• Classical statistics would say that the chance of getting tails on the 91st toss is exactly the same as on the first toss (i.e., 50-50);
• Bayesian statistics would say that there is a much greater chance of a tails showing on the 91st and subsequent tosses because of the preponderance of heads already observed.
• Back to Where you were in the text.

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The Reiter Coaching Letter is published by Steve Reiter on the first and third Tuesday of each month.  The purpose is to challenge you and support you in creating success and fulfillment throughout your life.

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The Reiter Coaching Letter
Copyright (c) 2002, Reiter Coaching. All rights reserved.
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